sexta-feira, 15 de janeiro de 2016

Emerging Trends in Real Estate Europe 2016

O Urban Land Institute (ULI) publicou o relatório "Emerging Trends in Real Estate Europe 2016".

“Global capital movements are increasingly targeting ‘exotic’ destinations such as Lisbon, where the market is picking up again.” The story has also moved on in Southern Europe. Spain is the furthest advanced in its recovery and Madrid remains high up the investment rankings at Number 4, but some feel “overheating is clearly a threat”. Next door in Portugal, Lisbon is also basking in popularity at Number 7, though the small size of its market deters some

“The feeling is that Portugal is on the radar of investors again. Portugal has recovered its credibility.” Lisbon’s recovery has been dramatic; international popularity and trans-Atlantic connections have hastened its return to health.

“Transactional services are going through the roof at the moment, particularly on the investment side, with the capital coming into Portugal − and it is all foreign capital,” says a local. The financial crisis wiped out most of the local Portuguese funds, but today international players are jostling for assets.

“German funds are still active but are finding it hard to compete with other funds from Singapore, China, Malaysia, Brazil, Angola, USA, UK and Holland.” “The variety of capital is a lot greater and it is no longer just core or core-plus that sells. Value-add and opportunistic are sought after too. Everything sells at the moment, which is a big difference.” 


Prime Lisbon commercial is reckoned to be “close to the top”, seeing some near-5 percent yields. “There is still some value to gather but it is in rental growth rather than yield compression. In non-prime or lesser prime locations there is more room to grow and more value to be had.” 

As a development destination, Lisbon’s prospects are less well regarded at Number 22. However, this may change. “There is a lack of supply, there are a number of cranes on the horizon and that's because there are good fundamentals,” says an opportunity fund manager. 

Lisbon’s population decline could soon halt too, according to a local: “People were pushed to the suburbs because they could not afford Lisbon rents. Because of lease terms on security of tenure landlords would rather not lease than have to let to someone indefinitely.” 

However, Portugal’s reform of its lease legislation in 2012 has allowed a phased move of controlled rents to market levels and given landlords greater freedom to evict tenants when structural work is needed on a property. These changes are encouraging more residential building and refurbishment.

“Development is focusing on the higher end of the market. This will have to change because we can’t just build for millionaires. Younger people want to live in the city.”


Emerging Trends in Real Estate Europe 2016

Fonte: Urban Land Institute